According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi’s prediction market currently implies just a 10% chance that the S&P 500 will cross above 7,000 in 2025. Source: @StockMKTNewz; Kalshi. On Kalshi, Yes contract prices map directly to market-implied probabilities, so a 10% probability corresponds to roughly $0.10 per contract. Source: Kalshi. Crypto traders track these equity odds because Bitcoin has shown increased correlation with U.S. equities since 2020, making equity risk signals relevant for digital asset sentiment. Source: IMF 2022; BIS 2022.

According to @KobeissiLetter, all asset classes are trading sharply lower today, with intraday relief rallies being sold into new lows in a textbook emotional correction. According to @KobeissiLetter, this risk-off pattern has become increasingly common in 2025 amid record leverage and hypersensitivity to headlines. According to @KobeissiLetter, the broader macro thesis remains intact: deficit spending is surging, AI CapEx is nearing $1 trillion per year, and a weakening labor market means the Fed must cut rates even with inflation around 3%. According to @KobeissiLetter, this backdrop supports an S&P 500 target of 7,000 on the horizon. According to @KobeissiLetter, the cross-asset selloff includes crypto risk and warrants caution for BTC and ETH during deleveraging, with potential support later if rate cuts materialize.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Nasdaq 100 futures jumped nearly 1% as markets reacted to US-China trade deal headlines, and the S&P 500 is now 2.3% away from 7,000 for the first time, per their Oct 26, 2025 update (source: @KobeissiLetter). For traders, this risk-on move in US equity index futures is a key cross-asset cue to monitor into the US session open (source: @KobeissiLetter).